When most people finally figure out how to make a sports bet, they rush to go make a few bets, hoping they’ll win. This isn’t a recipe for long-term success. To be a long-term winner at sports betting, you need a system that can beat the bookie’s vigorish, which is harder than you may think. Here are three ways to potentially come out a long-term winner at sports betting.
Do you think you know your favorite sport or some teams better than the bookies do? You probably don’t, but this is the method most people believe they use when they make sports bets. They believe the line is incorrect and that one team is being laid too many points or is not laying enough points. If you think you can handicap the game better than the bookies did, then you would make a bet on the side that is being under-represented. While most people believe they may be superior handicappers, 99% of them end up losing at sports betting in the long run.
Is the game you are betting on a college game or a lesser-known team and you know something everyone else doesn’t know? Then why not bet on it. As long as it’s not illegal to bet in this case, this may be a surefire way to get an edge. Of course, 99.99% of us don’t have access to this sort of insider information.
Betting Against The Public/Line Movements
The one method I believe is the most surefire way of coming out a winner, or at least a break-even bettor, is to make bets against the ‘popular’ teams or when the line suddenly moves in one direction for no reason. For starters, when most people bet on sports, they bet on ‘exciting’ or ‘well-known’ teams. They will bet on the favorite and will lay an excessive amount of points on that team. Even if a basketball team is better than the other team (let’s say they are really 7 points better), the standard bettor will often lay 9-10 points because they just want to bet on that team. Therefore, it is often a good bet to bet on the ‘unpopular’ team. Quite frankly, if in your gut, it feels weird to bet on a team and fun to bet on the opposing team, then bet on the team it feels ‘weird’ to bet on.
The reason it is profitable to bet on these unpopular teams is that the bookies receive much more action on the popular teams. Therefore, the bookie has a decision. If he is getting 90% of the action on one team and 10% on the other, he obviously wants the underdog to win. Because of this, he will shift the line to make it more advantageous for the underdog. This will both reduce his risk, since perhaps more people will now bet on the underdog, as well as increase his chances of winning.
In relation to this, watch for line movements. Often, the action on the public team will be so heavy that the line will start moving to reflect this. It will become juicier to bet on the underdog nearer to game time. Also, compare lines between sports books. One sports book may provide you with an even better line, since nearly every one of their punters has bet on the popular team and they want some action on the underdog.